Printemps arabe, ou début d’une chevauchée sauvage dans la région la plus instable du monde ?

, popularité : 28%

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Les bouleversements du Moyen-Orient entrent dans la phase deux

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par Daniel Pipes, <span style=
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août 2011

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Version originale anglaise : <a style=
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href="http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2011/08/middle-eastern-upheavals-enter-round-two"><span style=
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Eastern Upheavals Enter Round Two
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Adaptation française : Anne-Marie Delcambre de Champvert

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La phase un des bouleversements du Moyen-Orient se composait de coups d’état étrangement analogues en Tunisie et en Egypte. Dans les deux [pays], des manifestations de rue ont incité
l’establishment chargé des mesures de sécurité à se débarrasser d’un président rapace, impopulaire. Les événements ont bougé aussi rapidement parce que, face à un rejet par leurs propres bases de
pouvoir institutionnel, les présidents Ben Ali et Moubarak n’avait guère comme choix que de démissionner. Ils ont été rapidement remplacés par un autre chef, chargé d’assurer les mesures de
sécurité, qui gardait la plupart des politiques, des pratiques et des institutions de gouvernance en place. Libéraux ou islamistes cela ne faisait pas beaucoup de différence dans le semestre qui
a suivi.

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La phase deux consiste dans la chute quasi-certaine du régime de Kadhafi en Libye et le probable renversement de la dynastie des Assad en Syrie ainsi que du régime Saleh au Yémen. Dans les trois
cas, la révolution est en cours. Si ces dirigeants tombent, ce sera aussi le cas des institutions [qui existaient du temps] de leur règne, [tout ceci] menant au chaos et à la fondation éventuelle
d’un gouvernement entièrement nouveau. Dans les cas syrien et yéménite, il pourrait bien n’y avoir aucun gouvernement central efficace, mais la dévolution de pouvoirs aux régions, ethnies,
groupes idéologiques, ou aux tribus.

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En d’autres termes, la seconde phase est plus importante que la première. En outre, les cinq Etats susmentionnés pourraient bien ne pas être les seuls en jeu. L’Algérie et la Jordanie pourraient
connaître des processus similaires de bouleversement et de révolution. En plus de cela, grappillées à partir des émeutes réprimées de 2009, quelques petites étincelles pourraient déclencher un
incendie en Iran, l’Etat le plus perturbateur du Moyen-Orient.

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Une phase trois pourrait même suivre, consistant en ruptures régionales. Les premiers candidats ici incluent l’Arabie saoudite, l’Irak et la Turquie.

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En bref, nous pourrions être juste au début d’une chevauchée sauvage dans la région la plus instable du monde.

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© Daniel Pipes

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L’article original peut être consulté sur le <a style=
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href="http://fr.danielpipes.org/blog/2011/08/bouleversements-moyen-orient-phase-deux"><span style=
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de Daniel Pipes

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